TÜRKİYE ORTA ASYA HABER KKUORDİNATÖRÜ

GMF MAGAZINE An Existential Stress Test for Türkiye’s Political System A court ruling against the country’s main opposition party could undermine the last vestiges of democracy. Many who have observed Turkish elections over the past decade have argued that while the races may not have been fair, they were competitive. The opposition always had a chance to win, as was the case in the 2024 local elections. That argument would be difficult to make today. A recent Turkish court ruling that annulled the results of the main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP)’s 2023 congress and replaced its elected chairman with his predecessor who was defeated at that meeting, has plunged the organization into chaos. But the ruling has an even deeper consequence. It casts doubt on competition within Türkiye’s entire political system. The court ruling comes after the arrest of several CHP mayors, including Istanbul’s popular mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, whom the party had groomed as its next presidential candidate. Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş has not been detained or subjected to any legal proceedings, but numerous investigations are underway against him. These developments suggest that the upcoming elections may not be fair and competitive. Türkiye’s allies are watching with concern, but there is little they can do. The EU has little influence, as Türkiye’s accession process is effectively suspended. Furthermore, the country’s role in safeguarding European security in an increasingly tense geopolitical climate is paramount. Therefore, criticism from Brussels will be muted. Across the Atlantic, the current US administration does not prioritize democratic principles in its foreign policy. Little reaction is expected from Washington either. Türkiye’s allies and partners cannot and should not turn a blind eye to events in the country. However, they must avoid a rupture with Ankara. Cooperation with Turkey, while inevitably based on mutual interests, will be vital in the near future. These allies and partners should not use the shortcomings of Türkiye’s democracy, particularly in areas of broad domestic political consensus, to deny the country the right to pursue its legitimate national interests. Instead, Türkiye’s friends can play a positive role by engaging not only with the government, but with all political actors in the country. Ultimately, the Turks will determine the direction of their nation’s political future. Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the founder of the modern Turkish state and the CHP, once said: “There are no hopeless situations, only hopeless people.” The Turks, who are fighting to protect their democracy, are certainly not one of them. The views expressed here are solely those of the author(s). GMF does not take a position as an institution.