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POLITICS UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Who is the winner and loser in the Iran war? As the Iran war passes its 20th day, it remains unclear how long it will last and what kind of consequences it will have. Gulf countries hosting US bases, especially energy facilities, are under intense missile attack. While Israel bombs Iran, it is also launching air and ground attacks against Lebanon. The Donald Trump administration, which has amassed troops in the region with the claim of ending the war very quickly, seems to lack an exit strategy. According to analysts, the war has benefited Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the most. While the Gulf countries have paid the heaviest price by becoming targets of Iran in the war, US President Donald Trump has lost points both domestically and among international allies. David Miller, who served on the US State Department's Middle East negotiating team until 2003, believes that the winner and loser in the current war are already very clear. A former diplomat and Middle East expert commented, "Netanyahu is the clear winner. He has demonstrated Israel's military capabilities. The Gulf countries are the clear losers." Netanyahu shifted attention from Gaza to Iran According to Miller, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reshaped the map to his own terms. He shifted attention from the increasingly criticized war in Gaza to Iran, where there is stronger national consensus. Natan Sacks of the Middle East Institute also notes that even if there is no regime change in Iran, weakening Iran and the militias it supports in the region is a major gain for Netanyahu. Unlike the concerns of the US and other allies, continued instability in Iran does not pose a significant problem for Israel. Miller, stating that it is impossible for US President Donald Trump to declare victory and withdraw from the war at this stage, made the following assessment regarding the situation of the Gulf countries: "What the Gulf Arab countries currently perceive as a common threat is the future security and stability of the Gulf itself. The understanding that the Gulf represents the future of the region is now in danger. And with it, the Gulf's vision for itself." "Trump found Kim Jong-un in front of him" Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour also makes the analogy: "Trump, who demanded unconditional surrender from Iran, thought he would find an Iranian version of Delcy Rodriguez (in Venezuela), but instead he found an Iranian version of Kim Jong-un (the North Korean leader)." Trump, who began his second term with the claim of ending all wars, and who, despite his intense efforts, could not end the Ukraine war which he said he would finish in a few days, has put his allies in the Middle East at great risk with the Iran war. Trump, who promised to use his country's economic power for the well-being of Americans with the slogan "America First," has reached the point of seeking additional resources for a protracted war. It has emerged that the Pentagon, with an $800 billion budget for this year, has requested an additional $200 billion from Congress for the war with Iran. The US President is being accused domestically of shifting his slogan to "Israel First." According to analysts, Trump faces three bad options: prolonging the attacks, declaring victory early and hoping for Tehran to back down, or escalating tensions significantly. None of these options offer a clear way out. Why did the war start in the midst of negotiations? The question of "Why did Trump attack Iran while in the midst of negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program?" is also being widely debated. Iranian and US delegations held a series of meetings mediated by Oman, with the last meeting taking place in Geneva on February 26th, just two days before the war began. On February 27, American media reported that the meeting had been positive, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated, "I can say that today one of our most serious and longest negotiations took place. Overall, good progress was made, and a serious examination of the elements of an agreement, both in the nuclear field and in the sanctions area, has begun." Arakchi noted that despite natural disagreements on some issues, "both sides showed a more serious approach than in the past to reaching a solution through negotiation," and announced that technical-level talks would be held in Vienna starting Monday, March 2. A noteworthy statement from mediator Oman Oman's Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamed al-Busaidi, who mediated the US-Iran talks, published an article in The Economist on Thursday that contains answers to the question, "Why did the US attack while negotiations were underway?" In his article, Busaidi, stepping outside of diplomatic language, described the war as a "catastrophe" and stated that the Trump administration had "lost control of its own foreign policy," holding Israel responsible for the events. Negotiations