TÜRKİYE ORTA ASYA HABER KKUORDİNATÖRÜ

VIKING THING TANG / SWEDEN Erdoğan Under Fire: Fighting New Wave of Protests, Economic Recession and International Pressure This report examines Türkiye’s multifaceted crisis, triggered by the arrest of Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and leading to the largest protests in a decade. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s administration is grappling with an economic recession, widespread demonstrations, and increasing international scrutiny. These combined challenges threaten to shake Erdoğan’s 22-year rule. Turkey officially entered an economic recession with a 0.2% GDP contraction for two consecutive quarters, while inflation rose to 48.6%. The central bank has kept its key interest rate at 50% for eight months to combat inflation, significantly reducing consumption and investment. Meanwhile, the arrest of İmamoğlu, seen as Erdoğan’s main political rival, sparked massive demonstrations across the country, with over 1,400 protesters detained. Key Points The arrest of Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu sparked the largest protests in over a decade, led by young people and students demanding his release. The President adopted a new strategy, accusing the opposition of "ruining the economy" through protests and boycotts, demonstrating the effectiveness of the opposition's economic pressure. The expulsion of a BBC journalist and international criticism, particularly from Germany, highlight the escalating diplomatic tensions and international concern. Background Information In March 2025, Turkish authorities arrested Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu on charges of corruption and terrorism; the opposition claims these charges are politically motivated. İmamoğlu, who defeated Erdoğan's candidate in the 2019 Istanbul mayoral election and was re-elected in 2024, was endorsed as the Republican People's Party's (CHP) presidential candidate for the 2028 elections. The arrest follows a series of legal and administrative proceedings against İmamoğlu, including 42 administrative and 51 judicial investigations conducted during his time as mayor. Immediately before his arrest, Istanbul University revoked his diploma, citing irregularities in his 1990 university transfer; this could prevent him from running for president, as the Constitution requires candidates to possess a university degree. İmamoğlu's detention sparked widespread protests across Turkey, particularly in Istanbul, Ankara, and İzmir. Opposition leader Özgür Özel stated that protests would continue "in every city" until early presidential elections are announced or İmamoğlu is released. The CHP is planning a large rally in Istanbul to launch İmamoğlu's presidential campaign. Meanwhile, Türkiye's economic situation has significantly worsened. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute, the economy contracted by 0.2% in the second and third quarters of 2025, confirming the country's entry into recession. Household consumption fell by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, while government consumption dropped by 0.4%. Annual inflation stubbornly remained high at 48.6%, forcing the central bank to keep the benchmark interest rate at 50% for eight consecutive months. Economic Challenges and Political Tensions: Erdoğan's Weakness Türkiye's economic problems pose perhaps the most significant threat to Erdoğan's political survival. The combination of recession and high inflation has created a toxic economic environment that is eroding public support for the government. The economic crisis has put Erdoğan in a difficult position. Lowering interest rates could stimulate growth but worsen inflation, while maintaining high interest rates will continue to suppress consumption and investment. This dilemma demonstrates how severely Erdoğan's economic maneuvering ability is constrained. The opposition seized this vulnerability by calling for a boycott of companies allegedly supporting the Erdoğan government. The president's accusation that the opposition is "ruining the economy" shows that these boycotts can have a real impact and add a new dimension to the political struggle. Imamoğlu's arrest represents the culmination of political tensions in Türkiye. According to the New York Times, İmamoğlu is "widely seen as Erdoğan's most important political rival" and "remains popular, posing a threat to Erdoğan." Berk Esen, an associate professor of political science at Sabancı University in Istanbul, told the New York Times: "He made it clear to Erdoğan that the train is moving, coming towards him, and that he cannot stop it through normal means. As a result, Erdoğan attacked his most vulnerable point." Opposition figures questioned the nature of the charges against İmamoğlu, such as "forming a criminal organization, accepting bribes, extortion, and irregularities in public tenders."