TÜRKİYE ORTA ASYA HABER KKUORDİNATÖRÜ

THE NEW YORKER Could Türkiye’s Declining Democracy Be a Model for Trump’s America? Last week, Turkish authorities arrested Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, expected to be Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s main rival in the next presidential election scheduled for 2028. İmamoğlu, a member of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), is accused of corruption and supporting terrorism; he denies the charges, saying they are politically motivated. In response to İmamoğlu’s detention, nationwide protests erupted on a scale not seen in at least a decade. Erdoğan has ruled Türkiye since 2003 and maintains his hold on power partly by suppressing political opponents and the media. Some of these opponents come from Türkiye’s long-persecuted Kurdish minority; last month, imprisoned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Öcalan called for a ceasefire in the PKK’s long-running rebellion against the Turkish government; This is seen as part of a process that could lead to the disarmament of the group and his release from prison. I recently spoke by phone with Jenny White, a retired professor and expert on modern Turkey from the Stockholm University Institute for Turkish Studies. In our conversation, which was edited for length and clarity, we discussed why Erdoğan is now attacking his opponent, how his rule has changed over the last two decades, and the similarities and differences between his authoritarian style and that of Donald Trump. With İmamoğlu's arrest, are we entering a new phase of Erdoğan's power, or does it seem like a continuation of the same period? I think this is definitely a new chapter. And whether this chapter is turned is very important. The outcome is not yet clear. But if the chapter is turned – that is, if Erdoğan manages to get away with it – then Turkey will no longer be what is called a "competitive authoritarian" regime. This will be a regime where real elections are held, but the elections are not entirely fair because the government controls a large part of the media, or the media is owned by pro-government businesses. In Türkiye, the opposition never gets real airtime on television and can't get their message across through the media. That's why the elections aren't fair. But elections exist, and they still have a chance to work. Despite everything, there is real competition. But if Erdoğan manages to essentially eliminate the opposition candidate – and he's not only saying that, but also restructuring the leading opposition party, the CHP – then there will be no real opposition, no competition, and no real elections. And then there will be a complete autocracy. That's what happens if you turn the page. Why is İmamoğlu, in particular, such a threat to Erdoğan? Well, there are some pretty concrete things, for example, his continued success in winning elections. Even in pre-election polls for 2022, İmamoğlu was predicted to win against Erdoğan. So why didn't he win? Because the then-CHP leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, essentially said, "I want to be the candidate." Yet he himself was a kind of grey, uncharismatic person. They also made other mistakes, such as forming a coalition of six parties, including very small ones, to consolidate votes. This diluted the identity of each party. They called themselves the "Table of Six." Instead of one party, there was a table of six constantly fighting. But Erdoğan still only got fifty-two percent of the vote. Moreover, İmamoğlu defeated Erdoğan's party, the AKP, in the 2019 Istanbul mayoral election. The AKP was not happy with this result and demanded the election be annulled and rerun. In that election, İmamoğlu won by an even larger margin. He won again in 2024. So he has the ability to win elections. He has a reputation not just limited to Istanbul, but nationwide. And despite all the obstacles the regime constantly puts in his way, he has managed to do things for the city. For example, he found money for the public transportation system by meeting with mayors from all over Europe and taking loans from European banks. According to some news reports, when the CHP wins a municipality, the outgoing AKP administration empties the coffers and sells all the buildings. So when the CHP comes to power, they have nothing left. Imamoglu was very creative. A good speaker. Very modern and relatively young. He also opened a lot of kindergartens. To tell you about some of the absurd things happening now, there were reports that the government was going to launch an investigation against him for allegedly opening these kindergartens illegally. Another absurd thing was that the university he received his degree from revoked it. A university degree is required to be mayor. There are many opposition parties in Türkiye. Academics who study the decline of democracy often talk about the necessity of opposition unity. This doesn't always work. It didn't work in Hungary, and it didn't work in Türkiye in 2023. Why? There seemed to be a dilution of identity. If there is one strong party and a lot of smaller parties...