TÜRKİYE ORTA ASYA HABER KKUORDİNATÖRÜ

FİRSTPOST USA: DÜNYA TÜRK HABER / WORLD TURKISH NEWS İran ordusu ne kadar güçlü? ABD saldırırsa, İran bununla başa çıkabilir mi? Ülke çapındaki Hamaney karşıtı protestolar, her iki tarafın da tehditler ve karşı tehditler savurmasıyla daha büyük bir ABD-İran çatışmasına dönüştü. Pazartesi günü (12 Ocak), Beyaz Saray'ın ABD Başkanı Donald Trump'ın protestoculara yönelik baskıyı durdurmak için Tahran'a hava saldırısı düzenlemeyi düşündüğünü ve insanların "sokaklarda öldürüldüğünü" söylemesiyle gerilim tavan yaptı. İran'da protestolar giderek artarken ve ülke geneline yayılırken, rejim protestoları bastırmak için güç kullanmaya başladı; bu da ABD müdahalesi olasılığını artırdı ve Trump, İran hükümeti protestocuları öldürürse onları "kurtaracağını" söyledi. HİKAYE BU REKLAMIN ALTINDA DEVAM EDİYOR Ancak bu durum, İranlı yetkililerden sert bir tepkiye yol açtı; Cumhurbaşkanı Mesud Pezeşkiyan ve İran parlamento başkanı ABD'ye tehditler savurdu. İran'ın tehditleri, İslam Cumhuriyeti'nin askeri yeteneklerini ve bunların ne ölçüde önemli bir tehdit oluşturduğunu gözler önüne serdi. Açıklayıcılardan daha fazlası İran uçurumun eşiğinde: İslam Cumhuriyeti kontrolü mü kaybediyor? İran uçurumun eşiğinde: İslam Cumhuriyeti kontrolü mü kaybediyor? Rejim değişikliğinin ötesinde: İran medeniyet öyküsünü yeniden mi yazıyor? Rejim değişikliğinin ötesinde: İran medeniyet öyküsünü yeniden mi yazıyor? İran'ın ABD'ye uyarısı Geçtiğimiz Aralık ayının başlarında İran Devlet Başkanı Mesud Pezeşkiyan, ülkesine yönelik herhangi bir saldırıya sert bir karşılık verileceği sözünü vermişti. Ayrıntı vermese de, bu açıklaması Trump'ın İran'ın nükleer programını yeniden başlatmaya kalkışması durumunda ABD'nin yeni askeri saldırılar düzenleyebileceğini ima etmesinden bir gün sonra gelmişti. Pezeshkian sosyal medya paylaşımında, "İran İslam Cumhuriyeti'nin her türlü acımasız saldırıya cevabı sert ve caydırıcı olacaktır" dedi. Then last Sunday, Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, warned that both Israel and “all American military centres, bases and ships in the region will be our legitimate targets” in the event of an attack. “We do not consider ourselves limited to reacting after the action and will act based on any objective signs of a threat,” he added. Iran’s attorney general also noted that anyone protesting would be considered an “enemy of God” - an offence that carries the death penalty — while Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dismissed demonstrators as a “bunch of vandals” seeking to “please” Trump. On Sunday, the country announced three days of mourning for what it called “martyrs killed in Iranian national battle against the US and Israel”. Editor’s Picks Askeri müdahale, siber operasyonlar, müzakereler: Yaptırımlardan sonra Trump'ın İran'daki seçenekleri neler? Military strike, cyber ops, negotiations: After sanctions, what are Trump's options in Iran? İran, İsrail saldırısına misilleme yaptı: Tahran'ın füze ve nükleer kapasitesi nedir? Iran retaliates to Israeli attack: What are Tehran’s missile and nuclear capabilities? Iran’s military manpower Iran has a powerful military with Global Firepower stating that it is a Top 20 global military power. In fact, Iran is ranked 16 of 145 out of the countries considered. The International Institute for Strategic Studies notes that the Iranian armed forces are among the largest in West Asia, with at least 580,000 active-duty personnel and about 200,000 trained reserve personnel divided among the traditional army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. The regime in Iran also commands the Basij religious militia, a volunteer paramilitary force loyal to the establishment, which is often used to crack down on anti-government protests. Analysts say Basij volunteers may number in the millions. Iran has at least 580,000 active-duty personnel and about 200,000 trained reserve personnel divided among the traditional army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. File image/Reuters The Guards also operate the Quds Force, an elite unit in charge of arming, training and supporting the network of proxy militias throughout West Asia known as the “axis of resistance.” These militias include Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, militia groups in Syria and Iraq and Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD According to Afshon Ostovar, an associate professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School and an expert on Iran’s military, “There is a reason Iran has not been struck. It’s not that Iran’s adversaries fear Iran. It’s that they realise any war against Iran is a very serious war.” While the proxy militias are not counted as part of Iran’s armed forces, analysts say they are considered an allied regional force — battle ready, heavily armed and ideologically loyal — and could come to Iran’s aid if it was attacked. Iran’s treasure trove of weapons Apart from the manpower, Iran has a vast arsenal of long-range missiles, drones and air defences. Tehran, in fact, has one of the largest arsenals of ballistic missiles and drones in West Asia. That includes cruise missiles and anti-ship missiles, as well as ballistic missiles with ranges up to 2,000 kilometre, or more than 1,200 miles. These have the capacity and range to hit any target in West Asia, including Israel. This includes the Sejil, which has a range of 2,494 km as well as the Kheibar boasting of a range of 1,494 km. Iran has made no secret of the build-up, displaying its trove of drones and missiles during military parades, and has ambitions to build a large export business in drones. Iran’s Shahed drones are being used by Russia in Ukraine and have surfaced in the conflict in Sudan. Iran has one of the largest arsenals of ballistic missiles and drones in West Asia. That includes cruise missiles and anti-ship missiles, as well as ballistic missiles with ranges up to 2,000 kilometre. File image/Reuters Iran also claims to have a multi-warhead missile, known as the Khorramshahr, which was first tested in 2017 and appears likely to be derived from a North Korean missile, according to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Missile Defense Project. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The Arms Control Association, a Washington-based non-governmental organisation, notes that Iran’s missile programme is largely based on North Korean and Russian designs and has also received Chinese assistance. Iran is also known for its drone development. The Shahed drones are being used extensively by Russia in Ukraine. File image/Reuters When it comes to land power, Iran boasts of having 1,713 tanks as well as 1,517 rocket projectors. When it comes to the seas, Tehran has built a large fleet of speedboats and some small submarines that are capable of disrupting shipping traffic and global energy supplies that pass through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. While Iran is considered to be a militarily strong nation, many defence experts note that it lags far behind the power and sophistication of the armed forces of the United States, Israel and some European countries. For instance, Iran’s air force strength is negligible. Many of the aircraft are from the Shah regime of 1941 to 1979. Moreover, some of Iran’s tanks and armoured vehicles are old and outdated. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD A fighter aircraft is seen at the first underground air force base, called “Eagle 44” at an undisclosed location in Iran. File image/Reuters Iran’s nuclear capabilities While Iran doesn’t have a nuclear weapon yet, it has a long history of engaging in secret nuclear weapons research in violation of its international commitments. Western analysts say the Islamic Republic has the knowledge and infrastructure to produce a nuclear weapon in fairly short order should its leaders decide to do so. Analistler, İran'ın birkaç ay içinde nükleer silah yapımına yetecek kadar bölünebilir madde üretebileceğine inanıyor . Diğerleri ise bu maddeyi sadece bir veya iki hafta içinde üretebileceklerini söylüyor, ancak birçok kişi nükleer silah üretmenin muhtemelen daha uzun süreceğini kabul ediyor. ABD'nin geçen Haziran ayında İran'ın Kum kenti yakınlarındaki yer altı nükleer tesisine düzenlediği saldırıdan önce çekilmiş uydu görüntüsü. Arşiv fotoğrafı/Reuters En kötü senaryodan korkan ABD, geçen Haziran ayında İran genelindeki kritik nükleer ve askeri altyapıyı hedef aldı; bunlar arasında ülkenin ana nükleer zenginleştirme tesisi olan Natanz da bulunuyordu. Washington ayrıca İran'ın uranyum zenginleştirme tesisi Fordow'u da hedef aldı. Bundan sonra ne olacağını bekleyip göreceğiz: Trump İran'da askeri güç kullanacak mı? Ve İran da aynı şekilde karşılık verecek mi?