TÜRKİYE ORTA ASYA HABER KKUORDİNATÖRÜ

C:CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE WORLD TURKISH NEWS The Latest Challenge to Turkish Democracy: Paralyzing the Main Opposition Party If you can't beat them, find another way to control them. This seems to be the logic behind the government-led campaign against Türkiye's main political opposition, the Republican People's Party (CHP). This effort, which has escalated dramatically in recent months, uses court rulings and other measures to cripple the CHP and pave the way for a possible re-election campaign for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The next presidential and parliamentary elections in Türkiye are not scheduled until 2028, at which time Erdoğan, who will be seventy-four, will be ineligible to run again due to constitutional term limits. However, it is widely predicted that Erdoğan will attempt to be re-elected through a legal means that would require amending the constitution or calling for early parliamentary elections. The ruling coalition currently lacks the necessary votes for either option. Furthermore, the popularity of the CHP, coupled with the decline of Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP), poses a significant challenge to the president’s potential re-election bid. Having been in power uninterrupted for over two decades, the AKP no longer appears capable of reinventing itself and has lost much of its former appeal as an inspiring force for positive change. Prolonged economic hardship and persistent inflation, coupled with a significantly constrained political environment, have eroded its support and made it reliant on coalition arrangements with smaller parties. In contrast, the CHP, despite its own significant challenges, has managed to survive repeated legal battles and broadened its base through political activism that resonates with large segments of the population, particularly young voters. For Türkiye’s ruling party, maintaining electoral legitimacy is crucial, even after leading the country’s transition to a centralized presidential system, leading to a strengthening of the executive and a gradual slide toward one-man rule. In conclusion, the government's recent measures against the CHP appear to aim not only at exploiting the party's internal divisions but also at diminishing its leadership's ability to mount credible political opposition to the AKP. These seemingly legal actions appear to be designed not to eliminate the CHP entirely, but to reduce its capacity to function while maintaining the appearance of political pluralism. The CHP's popular presidential candidate and Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, had become a significant political figure after defeating the AKP in four municipal elections. He has been detained since mid-March on charges of corruption and financial irregularities. While awaiting indictment without parole, the number of detained CHP mayors has risen to fourteen, and the number of party and municipal officials to over 200. In contrast, AKP-controlled municipalities have not faced the same kind of legal scrutiny, even when similar allegations have surfaced. The CHP also faces the possibility of a court-ordered change in its elected leadership following allegations of irregularities at its party congresses. Earlier this month, a district court annulled the party’s Istanbul provincial congress on similar charges. The court removed elected CHP officials and appointed trustees who are opposed to the current leadership but connected to the CHP. This move, allowing appointed officials to frequently enter and exit the Istanbul office under heavy police protection while denying access to elected officials, has been widely interpreted as a harbinger of action against the party’s top leadership. This case has been adjourned until October. Meanwhile, in a show of strength and defiance, the main opposition continues to take to the streets with mass rallies; tens of thousands of supporters joined the streets of Ankara at the latest rally. Türkiye’s democratic resilience is undergoing a serious stress test as it stands at a critical juncture with the consolidation of power and the shrinking space for opposition. The NATO ally has a tradition of competitive multi-party politics dating back to the mid-1940s. However, its current strategy bears similarities to patterns observed in countries like Hungary, where judicial mechanisms and state resources are used to weaken the integrity of the opposition. Some recent polls in the Turkish media show that approximately 60 percent of the population views the legal proceedings against the CHP as politically motivated, and more than 80 percent doubt the impartial application of justice. Interestingly, there are also unconfirmed reports within some circles of the AKP that they are concerned about public backlash. Erdoğan, the longest-serving leader in modern Türkiye, is also risking his legacy. Erdoğan has, in his political career, appointed unelected individuals...