TÜRKİYE ORTA ASYA HABER KKUORDİNATÖRÜ

WORLD TURKISH NEWS / IFJ - INTERNATIONAL FEDERATION OF JOURNALISTS Senior Analyst: An Iranian Attack Would Trigger an Uncontrollable Conflict TEHRAN - In an analysis published on January 27, a researcher from Princeton University argued that if Iran were attacked by the United States and Israel, the Islamic Republic would consider it an "existential threat" and trigger an uncontrollable conflict. Seyyed Hussein Mousavian's remarks come at a time when the US is intensifying its military buildup near Iran. According to him, a potential attack would be quite different from the 12-day war in June 2025, when Israel attacked Iran and the US subsequently joined the Tel Aviv regime. Mousavian, the former head of Iran's National Security and Foreign Relations Committee, wrote in an article for Middle East Eye: "For Iran, the next US-Israeli attack would be an 'existential war' that would eliminate any incentive for restraint and trigger an uncontrollable conflict." The text of the article, titled "For Iran, another US-Israeli attack would be an 'existential war'," is as follows: Iran is facing a crisis unlike anything it has seen in decades. Amidst internal turmoil, economic instability, and escalating tensions with the US and Israel, Tehran is navigating a dangerous environment with profound regional and global consequences. The US has undertaken a massive military buildup around Iran amid escalating tensions, deploying additional naval forces, aircraft, and support elements. This move, one of the most significant US military concentrations near Iran in decades, is widely interpreted as preparation for a potential conflict and has drawn strong warnings from Tehran. US President Donald Trump pursued a strategy of regime change in Iran during the first year of his second term. Last June, Israel launched a dramatic military operation based on a strategy known as "top-down government collapse, bottom-up insurrection." Israeli and American planners assumed that the assassination of top Iranian political, military, security, and nuclear officials would lead to popular acceptance of regime change and street protests. They also assumed that by targeting Iran's missile capabilities, they would prevent any counter-attacks, thus paving the way for a rapid collapse. Dozens of high-ranking Iranian officials were killed in the June attacks, but the public largely rallied behind the government. Iran responded with hundreds of missile and drone attacks against Israel, delivering significant counter-shocks. Analysts now agree that these two factors were decisive in the failure of the 2025 operation. In response, Trump ordered attacks on three key Iranian nuclear facilities, potentially delaying Iran's nuclear weapons development goal by several years. Subsequently, a temporary ceasefire was established, primarily aimed at protecting Israel from Iranian missile attacks. However, towards the end of 2025, economic grievances triggered a new wave of protests; merchants in Tehran took to the streets to protest the collapse of the rial and rising cost of living. This unrest quickly spread to other cities. The hijacking of the protests This environment created an opportunity for the US and Israel to activate Plan B, a strategy that can be summarized as "insurrection from below, military attack from above." Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed that Israeli-linked networks had infiltrated the protests, escalating the conflict through sabotage, targeted attacks, and acts of violence, thereby increasing casualties. Trump implied that the increase in civilian deaths could justify US military intervention. Casualties among security forces and protesters were significantly higher than in previous waves of uprisings. However, the US-Israel strategy of hijacking the protests ultimately failed. Public revulsion against violent infiltrators led hundreds of thousands to participate in a government-organized rally in the second week of January, demonstrating opposition to foreign interference. Iranian security forces dismantled internal networks, cut off external communications, and arrested thousands, prompting the U.S. to withdraw from direct military intervention. The next possible phase of the U.S.-Israel strategy could involve an attempt to oust Iran's top leader; this scenario could draw comparisons to the recent operation in Venezuela. While Trump publicly stated that the time had come to remove Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham likened the Iranian regime to the Nazis, writing on Twitter: "We cannot let this historic moment pass..."