TÜRKİYE ORTA ASYA HABER KKUORDİNATÖRÜ

THE ECONOMIC TIMES NEWS As Turkey grapples with a political crisis, Erdoğan sees it as a scapegoat and is raising the issue of his son, Bilal. What's the situation? Türkiye's economic model, heavily reliant on high-interest government bonds to stabilize the lira, is collapsing. The Turkish Lira (TRY) is in freefall, and the government's efforts to stabilize it are proving unsuccessful. As of March 2025: Gross foreign exchange reserves are approximately $85 billion. Once net reserves, debt, and swap agreements are finalized… For more: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/trkiye-on-the-brink-as-economic-collapse-looks-imminent-will-recep-tayyip-erdoan-survive-the-political-turmoil/articleshow/119425000.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst Why Turkey Is at a Crossroads Between Democracy and Authoritarianism Last Wednesday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government sharply escalated its repressive measures, arresting leading opposition figure Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and banning public protests. As tens of thousands of protesters mobilized in defiance across the country, the Turkish regime cracked down even more harshly, detaining more than a thousand demonstrators, arresting journalists, and imprisoning İmamoğlu. These events represent a dangerous turning point for Türkiye's already repressive regime, between democracy and outright authoritarianism. Since 2015, Turkey has been a textbook example of what political scientists call a competitive authoritarian regime: a system in which the government's abuse of state power tilts the playing field of political competition in its favor. But Erdoğan has so far refrained from arresting his main rival. İmamoğlu, announced as the main opposition party's presidential candidate on Monday, has consistently trailed Erdoğan in opinion polls. The fundamental question Türkiye now faces is whether Erdoğan's attempt to suppress dissent will succeed, or whether public and international pressure will force the regime to back down. The best research in political science, by scholars like Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way, suggests that two factors strongly favor the regime: an international environment susceptible to repression and the ruling party's extensive influence over state institutions. However, there is a key variable that favors the opposition: mass social protests that surprise the Turkish regime with their speed and scale and could spur Turkish state institutions and the international community to support democratization. The first factor enabling Erdoğan's escalating pressure is geopolitics: Türkiye's Western allies are increasingly unable or unwilling to exert pro-democracy pressure. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described İmamoğlu's arrest as "deeply worrying." However, the European Union has not imposed significant costs, such as sanctions, on Turkish government officials in response to this pressure, almost certainly due to Ankara's geopolitical influence. The EU is becoming increasingly dependent on Türkiye as a military partner, especially as the new US administration indicates it will withdraw its support for Ukraine. Earlier this month, Erdoğan signaled that Ankara might send peacekeepers to Ukraine. The EU has relied heavily on Türkiye for cooperation in limiting migration to Europe since 2016: Turkey hosts more than 3 million registered Syrian refugees. On the other side of the Atlantic, the new US administration has been less willing to criticize its allies' violations of democracy. When a Turkish court convicted İmamoğlu in a separate, highly politicized case in 2022, the US State Department expressed "deep concern and disappointment" at the verdict. The State Department has not yet issued a similar statement on the current situation. Instead, the administration is effectively giving Türkiye's repressive policies a green light. Last Friday, just days after İmamoğlu's arrest, US special envoy Steve Witkoff described President Donald Trump's latest phone call with Erdoğan as "wonderful." On Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with his Turkish counterpart in Washington to discuss warmer relations, mentioning only briefly "concerns about the recent arrests and protests in Türkiye." Erdoğan's second trump card is domestic politics: The Turkish government controls a well-organized and repressive state apparatus. Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) have been in power for over two decades. By purging and tightening the stranglehold on state institutions, they have gained immense influence over Türkiye's judiciary, police, and military. Unless there is a significant crackdown by pro-democracy protests, these institutions are likely to maintain the regime's grip. Consider Erdoğan's control over Turkey's courts.