TÜRKİYE ORTA ASYA HABER KKUORDİNATÖRÜ

IFJ-INTERNATIONAL FEDERATION OF JOURNALIST/THEWEEK.NEWS Turkey has been maintaining an uneasy balance between democracy and authoritarianism for years. Elections are ongoing, opposition parties persist, and civil society remains active, albeit under pressure. However, recent events are making it increasingly difficult to maintain the illusion that Türkiye is a functioning democracy. The arrest of Istanbul's popular mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, on false charges that appear to be politically motivated is only the latest step in President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's slide toward autocracy. This move is a clear indication that Türkiye is shifting from democracy to an elected dictatorship. Scholars have long described Türkiye's political system as "competitive authoritarianism"—a hybrid regime in which democratic institutions exist but are manipulated to ensure the incumbent's dominance. During Erdoğan's two decades in power, he has steadily eroded the Republic of Turkey's checks and balances: he has subordinated the judiciary, suppressed the press, co-opted big business, and curtailed academic freedom. Throughout this period, elections have been held regularly, giving Erdoğan a semblance of democratic respectability. However, the scope for genuine political competition has been virtually exhausted. The arrest of İmamoğlu, a man of considerable popularity and considered Erdoğan's greatest threat, demonstrates that the president will not tolerate even symbolic challenges to his authority. İmamoğlu's alleged offense was calling the election officials who overturned his first mayoral victory in 2019 "idiots." This decision was widely viewed as orchestrated by Erdoğan's allies. While İmamoğlu subsequently won re-election by an even larger margin, the state's response clearly demonstrates that popular legitimacy offers no protection when it threatens the ruling establishment. Authoritarian regimes rarely emerge overnight. Türkiye's decline has been slow but deliberate. The failed coup attempt in 2016 provided Erdoğan with the pretext for a sweeping purge of public institutions. More than 100,000 civil servants, judges, officers, and teachers have been dismissed or arrested. Media outlets have been shut down, journalists imprisoned, and dissenting views have been criminalized under comprehensive anti-terrorism laws. The once relatively independent judiciary is now under tight executive control. Courts routinely issue politically expedient decisions, as seen in the convictions of opposition leaders, journalists, and human rights activists on baseless or fabricated charges. The state-controlled media ecosystem collaborates with the government, inundating the public with pro-government propaganda and suppressing alternative voices. Democratic repression operates at various levels. Over the past few years, Erdoğan's government has dismissed dozens of elected mayors from the pro-Kurdish HDP and replaced them with unelected, state-appointed trustees. Now, with İmamoğlu being targeted, even the more centrist opposition is facing similar tactics. The message is clear: Election victory offers no protection from repression. What distinguishes Erdoğan's authoritarianism from that of 20th-century dictators is his method. The constitution was not suspended, opposition parties were not banned, and elections were not dramatically annulled. Instead, power was centralized through legal means: constitutional referendums, manipulated court rulings, and selective prosecutions. This gradual progression has made Erdoğan's model particularly insidious and appealing to other would-be autocrats, such as Hungary's Viktor Orbán. Erdoğan's tactics of rule by law without justice provide a template for them. Erdoğan's political survival also depended on controlling the narrative of the Turkish economy. Years of construction booms and growth fueled by foreign capital convinced the public of this. But the Turkish economy is currently in dire straits. The lira has depreciated significantly, inflation is running above 50 percent, and foreign investment has dried up. Instead of correcting the situation, Erdoğan has turned to nationalism and conspiracy theories. The latest strategy involves denouncing Western governments, financial markets, and domestic dissidents as enemies of the people and the Turkish state. In a way, this has helped Erdoğan divert public attention from the country's economic dysfunction. İmamoğlu's arrest fits perfectly into this strategy. Erdoğan presented it as a necessary defense of national honor against those who "insult" public officials and challenge the state. Judicial tools are increasingly being used to silence dissent, portraying this as a legitimate administration while any dissent is portrayed as disloyal. While Erdoğan steadily advances, the West is increasingly prepared to respond to Türkiye's democratic backsliding.