SİTE 123 USA

SİTE 123 USA/DÜNYA TÜRK HABER WORLD TURKISH NEWS Canada IFJ-INTERNATIONAL FEDERATION OF JOURNALİST Measuring economic country-specific uncertainty in Türkiye Abstract In this paper, a new measure for uncertainty that affects the economy is proposed, constructed, and applied to an emerging economy, Türkiye. We have constructed an index of economic country-specific uncertainty (ECSU) that is in line with the methodology used in constructing economic policy uncertainty indexes. As the economic uncertainty is of the Knightian type, the essence of measuring it lies in counting the frequency of joint appearances of words related to economics and uncertainty in Turkish-language newspapers. The uncertainty index constructed using local language sources- Turkish performs significantly better in measuring country-specific uncertainty in Türkiye. However, some indexes use English language sources to measure uncertainty in Türkiye- did not make them country-specific. The ECSU was tested by evaluating the dynamic real effects of the uncertainty. This evaluation was performed by the analysis of impulse responses from uncertainty to some economic variables in a vector autoregressive model describing the economy of Türkiye. We find that an unexpected increase in uncertainty in the Turkish-language press is related to decreases in industrial production, employment, and trade. If the uncertainty measure is based on the articles from the English-language press only, no such relationship can be confirmed. We also find that an increase in uncertainty leads to increase in inflation and stock and oil prices. 1 Introduction: why measure uncertainty Earlier version of this paper is presented in the seminar ‘Geopolitical Uncertainty and Its Macroeconomic Effects: The Case of Turkey’, which was held on January 16, 2017, at Vistula University (AFiBV) in Warsaw, Poland. To our knowledge, it was, at that time, the first countryspecific (Turkish Language) uncertainty index. I secondly presented in the Bamberg Research Group on Behavioral Macroeconomics (BaGBeM) Brownbag Seminar to the research group of Prof. Dr. Christian R. Proaño at Otto-Friedrich-University of Bamberg in Germany. The presentation with the title ‘Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Introduction to the problem and literature’ took place on April 13, 2018. I thirdly presented in the workshop ‘Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty in Turkey’ to the research group of Prof. Dr. Peter Winker at the Justus-Liebig University of Giessen in Germany on February 6, 2019. I fourthly presented ‘Geopolitical Uncertainty and its Macroeconomic Effects on the Economic Performance of Germany’ at the Academics in Solidarity (AiS) Network Conference and Skills Workshop on 30-31 October 2019 at Cologne University in Germany. I finally presented at the Academics in Solidarity (AiS) Network Conference: ‘Regaining Lost Knowledge-Connecting Research at Home and in Exile’ at Berlin Freie University on 21-22 November 2019 in Germany. The concept of uncertainty is potentially ubiquitous. It is of concern to analysts, consumers, economists, financial investors, and politicians. Uncertainty in macroeconomics has been measured by the distribution of discrepancies between a group of professional economic forecasters or forecast errors or computing either the conditional volatility of some macroeconomic variables, or by coding an algorithm with advanced artificial intelligence techniques to search keywords related to uncertainty in natural language processing (NLP). While conditional volatility is represented by the standard deviation or variance or mean of the variable given, uncertainty, which is immeasurable in advance, is not the same as what the volatility is or what it measures. Given this, volatility and uncertainty completely measure different phenomena. The problem is they were confusingly employed instead of one another in the literature of empirical economics. To clarify the obvious difference between them, we decided to analyse their relationship in the recent history of macroeconomics. In the post global financial crisis (GFC) era, the economic development of the European and US economies has seen quite little volatility, understood in the conventional sense of variation over time in the main macroeconomic indicators like inflation, industrial production, exchange rates, unemployment rates, and so forth (see e.g. Fig. 9 in Appendix). However, at the same time, there has been a substantial increase in uncertainty caused by various economic, financial, and geopolitical shocks. This meant the GFC, the Eurozone crisis, the Syrian crisis, the Brexit vote, the refugee crisis, the election of Trump, terrorist a