TÜRKİYE ORTA ASYA HABER KKUORDİNATÖRÜ

DÜNYA TÜRK HABER/WORLD TURKIS NEWS Canada IFJ-INTERNATIONAL FEDERATION OF JOURNALIST: TURKEY CENTRAL ASIA CAUCASUS CORRESPONDENT CENTRAL ASIA HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT In August 2024, Central Asian energy ministers met for the first time in Astana.[39] On the agenda were joint projects such as hydropower production and Tajikistan's aim to rejoin the Central Asian Integrated Energy System (CAPS), an integrated energy system established during the Soviet era through which Central Asian states could exchange electricity. Both issues are currently quite relevant. During the Soviet era, the Central Asian republics exchanged electricity through a system that took into account the needs of all five republics. Thus, from spring onward, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, located in the upper basin, used the flow of water to generate electricity at hydroelectric power plants and simultaneously irrigate the lands of the three downstream countries. In winter, the two upstream countries would collect water and rely on energy from fossil fuels from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. Today, this shift is no longer working. After their independence, Central Asian states began to withdraw from the system due to various disagreements regarding energy production, transportation, and water-sharing arrangements. [40] National interests began to take precedence in their national policies, rather than considering the needs of all of Central Asia. This meant that upstream countries had to release their water flows even in winter to produce sufficient energy. This resulted in less water being stored for release during the agricultural season, reducing water flow to downstream countries during this season. One idea that had been proposed in the past was to allow downstream countries to pay for increased water flows during the agricultural season, but downstream countries perceived this as a strange idea. One interviewee said: “Why would countries downstream pay countries upstream to let water flow during the agricultural season? Imagine the Netherlands having to pay Switzerland to let rivers flow—I can’t even imagine that happening.”[41] Figure 5: The Syr Darya and Amu Darya, the main rivers of Central Asia, flow from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (and Afghanistan) upstream to Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan downstream.[42] The Syr Darya and Amu Darya, the main rivers of Central Asia, flow from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (and Afghanistan) upstream to Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan downstream. In Central Asia, there is a complex interplay of competing trade-offs between water, energy, and food security. While the region is generally rich in water and energy resources, both are scarce at the national level due to their unequal distribution.[43] The Syr Darya and Amud Darya, the two largest rivers in Central Asia, originate in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (and Afghanistan). These upstream countries possess the largest water reserves in the region. However, the main use of this water (85%) occurs in their downstream neighbors, primarily for irrigation.[44] While Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan possess substantial oil, gas, and coal reserves, their upstream neighbors are dependent on further hydropower development without regional cooperation on water and energy. Energy security is a key priority for Central Asian countries. For example, Tajikistan's flagship project, the Rogun Dam, has been under development for decades, beginning in the Soviet Union in 1976. Since 2016, it has gained new momentum with various investments, including from the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the European Investment Bank (EIB), the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), and the Islamic Development Bank (IDB).[45] The Roghun Dam aims to make Tajikistan the energy hub of Central Asia and provide low-cost electricity for domestic demand and exports. The World Bank estimates an average annual production of 14.4 TWh, equivalent to approximately 70% of Tajikistan's current total production.[46] While electricity exports to neighboring countries could lead to increased cooperation in Central Asia, the project has so far drawn persistent criticism from Uzbekistan. Concerns include the dam's potential to significantly reduce the amount of water flowing into Uzbekistan, jeopardizing the country's agricultural economy and food production. However, while Uzbekistan's previous president, Karimov, vehemently opposed the project and threatened war, his successor, Mirziyoyev, agreed to purchase electricity from Roghun.[47] Furthermore, closer cooperation between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan could reduce the dam's impact on downstream irrigation.[48] Concerns in Uzbekistan