TÜRKİYE ORTA ASYA HABER KKUORDİNATÖRÜ

4.903 / 5.000 RTL:TURKISH NEWS (QUOTE) WORLD TURKISH NEWS/WORLD TURKISH NEWS IFJ-INTERNATIONAL FEDERATION OF JOURNALISTS Regional Concerns Turkey Breathes Relief as Iran-Israel Ceasefire Mitigates Potential Consequences As the fragile Iran-Israel ceasefire enters into force, Türkiye's diplomatic efforts Wednesday remained unabated to prevent a relapse in a conflict that poses risks to Ankara's domestic and regional policies. A few hours after US President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met with Trump for the third time in 10 days as part of a NATO summit. Erdoğan's "intensive diplomatic efforts" to end the conflict included meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and senior Middle Eastern leaders. "Turkey is trying very hard to defuse the situation, but it is not seen as a reliable mediator by either Iran or Israel," Gönül Tol of the Washington-based Middle East Institute told AFP. Türkiye's ties with Israel have been torn apart by the Gaza war, and the Iranians view Ankara as complicit because it hosts a strategic radar for a NATO early warning system capable of detecting Iranian missiles, located at the Kürecik base in eastern Türkiye. Turkey has categorically denied using the radar data to aid Israel, but the presence of the radar has alarmed Iran. Some Iranian military officials have warned that Türkiye could be a "first target" in the event of a wider war. Nevertheless, Erdoğan reportedly attempted to initiate US-Iran talks in Istanbul last week. However, these meetings failed because they failed to reach and secure approval from Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is in hiding due to assassination threats. The Axios news website reported that the talks were unsuccessful. Erdoğan, uneasy about Israel's long-range influence, has ordered Türkiye's defense industry to increase production of medium- and long-range missiles, bolstering its deterrent. He warned that Ankara is "preparing for all scenarios." Gallia Lindenstrauss, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), said, "Concerns of a potential Turkish-Israeli conflict in the short term seem exaggerated... (but) it would be wise for both sides to de-escalate." - Fear of Iran descending into chaos - Soner Çağaptay of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said that Turkey's greatest fear would be that neighboring Iran would descend into chaos, as it has in Iraq and Syria. Speaking to AFP, Çağaptay said, "Ankara absolutely does not want Iran to descend into chaos, decentralization, or civil war, which could create cross-border threats or new refugee flows." He said that instability in Iraq and Syria had created a power vacuum exploited by ISIS and Kurdish PKK militants to "launch attacks on Türkiye," fueling Ankara's efforts to promote the re-centralization of both countries. But the "biggest risk" would be another influx of refugees: "If Iran collapses, there's only one country where Iranians will flee in large numbers: Turkey," he said. On Friday, Erdoğan warned German Chancellor Friedrich Merz that the conflict could "damage the region and Europe in terms of migration," despite there being no signs of an influx at the Turkish border last week. - Risk for Türkiye's PKK offensive? - Tol said that the turmoil in Iran could also harm Ankara's efforts to end its decades-long conflict with the PKK, which it announced last month would disarm. While most PKK-affiliated groups have embraced the disarmament call, the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), the organization's Iranian affiliate, has not. Ankara was concerned that any unrest could embolden die-hard Kurdish separatists. "The concern is that this chaos will strengthen PJAK," he told AFP. "There are PKK factions that are unhappy with (founder Abdullah) Öcalan's call and may think, 'Why disarm now when we can benefit from so much chaos?'" A more pressing concern for Turkey is that its crisis-hit economy is already "struggling" with rising energy prices and is struggling hard to curb inflation, he said. "But if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, that would mean a bigger jump in energy prices, and that deeply worries Türkiye." During the 11-day conflict, oil prices soared as concerns grew that Iran could disrupt supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, reaching a peak on Monday after US warplanes struck Iran. With the ceasefire in place, Türkiye breathed a sigh of relief on Wednesday. However, the Iran-Israel crisis continued to occupy a prominent place on the NATO summit agenda.