TÜRKİYE ORTA ASYA HABER KKUORDİNATÖRÜ

WORLD,TURKEY NEWS Apr 28, 2025 General The Economic TimesNews Turkey is at a crossroads. The economy is falling apart, inflation is rising rapidly, and foreign exchange reserves are shrinking at an alarming rate. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, already under pressure from increasing authoritarian measures, is now facing mass boycotts involving more than 50 million people. The question is no longer whether a crisis is coming, but how fast it will hit. How critical is Turkey’s economic situation? Turkey’s economic model, which is heavily dependent on high-interest government bonds to stabilize the lira, is collapsing. The Turkish lira (TRY) is in free fall, and the government’s efforts to maintain stability are proving futile. As of March 2025: Gross foreign exchange reserves are around $85 billion. Net reserves are close to zero or even negative when debts and swap agreements are taken into account. Real liquid reserves available for intervention may be only $20-40 billion. TaboolaSponsored Links Things You Might Like Audiologists: This Is the Highest-Rated Hearing Aid in the U.S. — and It’s Under $100 Today’s Top Trending News What Factors Could Rapidly Deplete Reserves? Reserves are already under pressure, but a few key events could push Turkey into a full-scale economic collapse: Mass Conversion of the Lira to the U.S. Dollar If 30 million citizens exchanged an average of $500, the central bank would lose $15 billion in reserves almost instantly. The lira would face an unprecedented collapse. ET Logo Academy Strengthen Your Mind, Sharpen Your Skills LiveEvents_1_img LiveEvents_2_img Widespread Bank Withdrawals The Turkish banking system holds about $450 billion in total deposits. If just 5% of depositors panicked and withdrew their money, that would wipe out $22.5 billion in a matter of days, reducing more than half of existing reserves. Tax Payment Boycotts The Turkish government relies on $150 billion in annual tax revenue. If 20% of taxpayers refuse to pay, the government will face a $2.5 billion monthly deficit, further depleting the economy. Energy and Transportation Cuts With $5 billion in monthly energy imports, even a 20% cut could cost the economy an additional $1 billion per month, further depleting reserves. General Strikes and Labor Trials A week-long nationwide strike could cost the economy $4-5 billion. If prolonged, the financial damage could be irreversible. If these factors collide simultaneously, Turkey could lose up to $40 billion in reserves in a single month, effectively wiping out its financial safety net. How long before total economic collapse? Scenario 1: Instant Banking Crisis (7-14 Days) If 10% of bank deposits are withdrawn, this would mean a $45 billion liquidity crisis, far beyond what current reserves can handle. The financial system would collapse within two weeks. Scenario 2: Gradual Economic Collapse (2-3 Months) A loss of $5-10 billion per month in reserves due to consumer boycotts and capital flight could lead to a full-fledged crisis within two to three months. Scenario 3: Temporary Survival with Foreign Assistance (6-12 Months) If capital controls are imposed, outflows are limited to $1-2 billion per month, and foreign financial assistance (e.g. a $10-15 billion IMF bailout) is provided, the crisis can be postponed for 6-12 months, but not resolved. How do political boycotts make things worse? Today, opposition leaders launched one of the largest coordinated boycotts in Turkish history, mobilizing 50 million people to resist economic policies, including mass withdrawals, refusals to pay taxes and spending cuts in critical sectors. With trust in the government at an all-time low, these protests could cripple Turkey’s ability to stabilize its economy. Does the government have a solution? Erdoğan’s administration is looking for a way out, but the government has few options: Impose capital controls to prevent further outflows. Seek external loans from international lenders such as the IMF, even if this goes against Erdoğan’s policies. Introduce emergency economic measures such as price controls and subsidies to stabilize consumer confidence. But these measures do more to delay the inevitable than to solve the root problems. Can Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Survive Political Unrest? Erdoğan has used repression, arrests and media censorship to silence opposition for years. But as economic troubles deepen, even his staunchest supporters are beginning to question his leadership. As millions mobilize against him, the real question is not just whether he can fix the economy, but also whether he can survive politically. What lies ahead? The coming months will be crucial for Turkey. Without decisive action, a financial meltdown could trigger mass unemployment, hyperinflation and social unrest. The US, EU and Gulf