EURO NEWS IN Turkish
Russia The Ukrainian War has now begun to become very critical, but this war II.Turkey and Greece prepared the ground for world war II Russia
In the first place, because Turkey and Greece also have American superiors, and this situation is considered a priority target of the Palestinian crisis
It is only a distraction tactic, but Ukraine is being overlooked.
Is the Russia-Ukraine War Nearing its End? While the Russia-Ukraine War was at the top of the world agenda in its first months, it is no longer frequently featured in the world media, except for some brief assessments. In a sense, this situation reminds us of the Deceleration of the Deceleration of the conflicts between Iran and Iraq between 1980 and 1988, which led to the death of about one million people, injury of two million people and severe destruction in both countries. Of course, there is no way to claim that the situation in question is exactly the same as the Russia – Ukraine War. On the other hand, the stagnation experienced at the current point and the increasing exhaustion of the countries' capabilities to conduct the war, the fact that the international public is no longer paying sufficient attention to this serious crisis, and, accordingly, the interruption of assistance to Ukraine, which is a victim of the war, are noteworthy issues. Within this framework, it is witnessed that the expectation of peace is being expressed more frequently in the world public opinion, and the possible consequences of the war, which is the subject of analysis, as well as the European security and global effects, are starting to be discussed on various platforms. Director of the Cabinet of the Secretary General of NATO S.Jenssen's mention at a panel held in Arendal, Norway last month that he "thinks that Ukraine giving up its territory and receiving NATO membership in return could be a solution” can be cited as just one final example of this. Janssen's statement that the timing of the negotiation and the conditions under which it will take place depends on Ukraine was also included in a newspaper published in Norway. It was also noteworthy that the same official stated that the views he announced were part of a larger discussion about possible future scenarios in this Ukraine and that his statement was erroneous. Similarly, the Chairman of the EU Military Committee, Austrian Gen. R.Brieger, then the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. M.Milley has stated that things in Ukraine are not going as Western military planners had hoped. It is difficult to determine at the moment whether the disclosure of opinions in this way is due to an overreach of authority, or a personal mistake made, or whether certain ideas were deliberately put forward for testing. It is observed that the recent Russian attacks have been concentrated in the problematic areas in the southeast, where the city of Odessa, Ukraine's windpipe opening to the Black Sea, and port facilities have been concentrated as a result of the Ukrainian counter-offensives. On the other hand, the drone attacks carried out by Ukraine against the city center of Moscow, the base where transport aircraft are located and elements of the Black Sea navy find wide coverage in the media. WHAT DO THE PARTIES WANT? At the current stage, Russia's inability to achieve the desired result due to the wrong strategic steps it has taken since the beginning of the war has ruined Ukraine, which it considers Russian territory, millions of people have been killed, and many of them have left their country and become refugees, which, contrary to what Russia claims, has made the Ukrainian people realize that they have a separate nation and self. In short, Russia has lost Ukraine forever. When we look at the latest developments related to the war, it can be seen that the clashes are focused on the problematic Luhansk and Donetsk regions in the south-east of Ukraine. It can be predicted that the node that will determine the outcome of the war is here again. Ukraine does not back down from the position it has been defending since the beginning, and seems determined to continue the struggle until it liberates Crimea from occupation in addition to these two regions. President Zelensky of Ukraine and all officials insist on defending this position in their statements on the issue. The Russian side is trying to record the current situation on the ground as the gains of this war in order to legitimize the actual picture of the annexation of Crimea and the two regions to its territory in an illegitimate and illegitimate way and to turn the Sea of Azov into its own inland sea, without reserving the idea that “Ukraine is a Russian extension” as Putin has previously claimed. The expectation of a big change in the field in the short term is unrealistic. Because the recent Wagner uprising and the subsequent suspicious deaths of the group's leader Prigozhin and some of its key commanders reflect a state of confusion in Russia. Putin is struggling with problems on both the political and military fronts, especially with the high-level political and military commanders and officials who collaborated with him during Prigozhin's launching of the rebellion. These issues stand out as important developments that will be reflected on the battlefield for a while. Taking into account the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court against him, it is noteworthy that Putin attends important meetings that are taking place around the world at this time, of which he is a member, only by teleconference. TO WHAT EXTENT WILL THE PROCUREMENT OF MILITARY SYSTEMS BE EFFECTIVE? Ukraine, on the other hand, continues to wait for weapons and financial resources from the United States and the West due to its completely collapsed economy. According to the information contained in open sources, the shipment of Main Battle Tanks from the previously committed assistance has not been fully completed. Therefore, the impact of the systems subject to analysis has not yet been felt in the field of operations. Currently, there are statements that the United States has approved the shipment and use of F-16 aircraft, which is one of the most important issues and may be an important multiplier of operations (even a game changer) for Ukraine. Although the timetable for when the delivery of these aircraft by the specified countries will be made has not yet been clearly stated in the statements, it is not considered possible for this to happen in a very short period of time. Of course, it is possible to predict that if these aircraft are used at full capacity, they will make a great contribution to the Ukrainian Air Force. However, if the calendar becomes clearer, first of all, the training of the pilot and ground crew will become important. With accelerated package trainings, it will be possible to shorten the time for experienced pilots who initially fly other aircraft types, have more flight hours, to start training. Due to the large number of countries in the world that have F-16s in the air force inventory, Ukraine will easily be able to train a large number of pilots in a short time. In this context, it is of particular importance to determine and supply the munitions to be used in parallel with the time of arrival of the aircraft to the country. In addition, as I mentioned earlier in an article published in EDAM, as long as the war does not move to Russian territory, Ukraine will have to accept Russian attacks and take constant defensive measures. In order to move the war into Russia, F-16 aircraft capable of remote engagement with modern ammunition capabilities must be included in the equation quickly. In addition, along with these aircraft, the procurement of long-range regional air defense weapon systems and long-range precision guided rocket systems will also affect the balance of the war in favor of Ukraine. Ukraine with the capabilities provided/to be provided to Ukraine by the United States and NATO; - Even if it cannot achieve air superiority in the entire country, it will prevent Russian aircraft from moving easily in their airspace by ensuring control of the airspace in the regions it will determine, - It will be able to provide the necessary support for the success of forward attacks by providing the support of surface troops in the counterattacks to be carried out, - Russia will be able to neutralize the threats that will be directed at it with deep attacks on the ground. Only with such a radical change will it be able to change the balances on the battlefield. Otherwise, as I mentioned at the beginning, because the war has become stationary, the war will continue with small-scale attacks that the two sides will make in order to wear each other out. Since there has not been a major change in the attitudes of the political parties and supporters in the process so far, it seems unlikely that a solution will be reached in the short term. Based on this determination, it is that in the future the parties may decide that they can no longer sustain this war economically and be convinced to sit down at the table to end the war under the influence of international pressure. Firstly, a ceasefire decision to be made and then permanent peace negotiations may be possible under some conditions. Finding a middle way will be possible if both sides agree to step back to some extent from the rhetoric they have advocated so far. As a solution; - The establishment of an autonomous structure in which the rights of Russian-speaking and Russian passport-holding citizens living in these regions are defined by an arrangement that Ukraine will put into its constitution as a result of the referendum to be held in three disputed regions (Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, - Ukraine's long-term re-commitment of facilities related to some ports and naval bases that were given to Russia's use before the war, - The provision of certain guarantees for the elimination of national security concerns during the process for Ukraine to become a full member of NATO,
Is the Russia-Ukraine War Nearing its End? While the Russia-Ukraine War was at the top of the world agenda in its first months, it is no longer frequently featured in the world media, except for some brief assessments. In a sense, this situation reminds us of the Deceleration of the Deceleration of the conflicts between Iran and Iraq between 1980 and 1988, which led to the death of about one million people, injury of two million people and severe destruction in both countries. Of course, there is no way to claim that the situation in question is exactly the same as the Russia – Ukraine War. On the other hand, the stagnation experienced at the current point and the increasing exhaustion of the countries' capabilities to conduct the war, the fact that the international public is no longer paying sufficient attention to this serious crisis, and, accordingly, the interruption of assistance to Ukraine, which is a victim of the war, are noteworthy issues. Within this framework, it is witnessed that the expectation of peace is being expressed more frequently in the world public opinion, and the possible consequences of the war, which is the subject of analysis, as well as the European security and global effects, are starting to be discussed on various platforms. Director of the Cabinet of the Secretary General of NATO S.Jenssen's mention at a panel held in Arendal, Norway last month that he "thinks that Ukraine giving up its territory and receiving NATO membership in return could be a solution” can be cited as just one final example of this. Janssen's statement that the timing of the negotiation and the conditions under which it will take place depends on Ukraine was also included in a newspaper published in Norway. It was also noteworthy that the same official stated that the views he announced were part of a larger discussion about possible future scenarios in this Ukraine and that his statement was erroneous. Similarly, the Chairman of the EU Military Committee, Austrian Gen. R.Brieger, then the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. M.Milley has stated that things in Ukraine are not going as Western military planners had hoped. It is difficult to determine at the moment whether the disclosure of opinions in this way is due to an overreach of authority, or a personal mistake made, or whether certain ideas were deliberately put forward for testing. It is observed that the recent Russian attacks have been concentrated in the problematic areas in the southeast, where the city of Odessa, Ukraine's windpipe opening to the Black Sea, and port facilities have been concentrated as a result of the Ukrainian counter-offensives. On the other hand, the drone attacks carried out by Ukraine against the city center of Moscow, the base where transport aircraft are located and elements of the Black Sea navy find wide coverage in the media. WHAT DO THE PARTIES WANT? At the current stage, Russia's inability to achieve the desired result due to the wrong strategic steps it has taken since the beginning of the war has ruined Ukraine, which it considers Russian territory, millions of people have been killed, and many of them have left their country and become refugees, which, contrary to what Russia claims, has made the Ukrainian people realize that they have a separate nation and self. In short, Russia has lost Ukraine forever. When we look at the latest developments related to the war, it can be seen that the clashes are focused on the problematic Luhansk and Donetsk regions in the south-east of Ukraine. It can be predicted that the node that will determine the outcome of the war is here again. Ukraine does not back down from the position it has been defending since the beginning, and seems determined to continue the struggle until it liberates Crimea from occupation in addition to these two regions. President Zelensky of Ukraine and all officials insist on defending this position in their statements on the issue. The Russian side is trying to record the current situation on the ground as the gains of this war in order to legitimize the actual picture of the annexation of Crimea and the two regions to its territory in an illegitimate and illegitimate way and to turn the Sea of Azov into its own inland sea, without reserving the idea that “Ukraine is a Russian extension” as Putin has previously claimed. The expectation of a big change in the field in the short term is unrealistic. Because the recent Wagner uprising and the subsequent suspicious deaths of the group's leader Prigozhin and some of its key commanders reflect a state of confusion in Russia. Putin is struggling with problems on both the political and military fronts, especially with the high-level political and military commanders and officials who collaborated with him during Prigozhin's launching of the rebellion. These issues stand out as important developments that will be reflected on the battlefield for a while. Taking into account the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court against him, it is noteworthy that Putin attends important meetings that are taking place around the world at this time, of which he is a member, only by teleconference. TO WHAT EXTENT WILL THE PROCUREMENT OF MILITARY SYSTEMS BE EFFECTIVE? Ukraine, on the other hand, continues to wait for weapons and financial resources from the United States and the West due to its completely collapsed economy. According to the information contained in open sources, the shipment of Main Battle Tanks from the previously committed assistance has not been fully completed. Therefore, the impact of the systems subject to analysis has not yet been felt in the field of operations. Currently, there are statements that the United States has approved the shipment and use of F-16 aircraft, which is one of the most important issues and may be an important multiplier of operations (even a game changer) for Ukraine. Although the timetable for when the delivery of these aircraft by the specified countries will be made has not yet been clearly stated in the statements, it is not considered possible for this to happen in a very short period of time. Of course, it is possible to predict that if these aircraft are used at full capacity, they will make a great contribution to the Ukrainian Air Force. However, if the calendar becomes clearer, first of all, the training of the pilot and ground crew will become important. With accelerated package trainings, it will be possible to shorten the time for experienced pilots who initially fly other aircraft types, have more flight hours, to start training. Due to the large number of countries in the world that have F-16s in the air force inventory, Ukraine will easily be able to train a large number of pilots in a short time. In this context, it is of particular importance to determine and supply the munitions to be used in parallel with the time of arrival of the aircraft to the country. In addition, as I mentioned earlier in an article published in EDAM, as long as the war does not move to Russian territory, Ukraine will have to accept Russian attacks and take constant defensive measures. In order to move the war into Russia, F-16 aircraft capable of remote engagement with modern ammunition capabilities must be included in the equation quickly. In addition, along with these aircraft, the procurement of long-range regional air defense weapon systems and long-range precision guided rocket systems will also affect the balance of the war in favor of Ukraine. Ukraine with the capabilities provided/to be provided to Ukraine by the United States and NATO; - Even if it cannot achieve air superiority in the entire country, it will prevent Russian aircraft from moving easily in their airspace by ensuring control of the airspace in the regions it will determine, - It will be able to provide the necessary support for the success of forward attacks by providing the support of surface troops in the counterattacks to be carried out, - Russia will be able to neutralize the threats that will be directed at it with deep attacks on the ground. Only with such a radical change will it be able to change the balances on the battlefield. Otherwise, as I mentioned at the beginning, because the war has become stationary, the war will continue with small-scale attacks that the two sides will make in order to wear each other out. Since there has not been a major change in the attitudes of the political parties and supporters in the process so far, it seems unlikely that a solution will be reached in the short term. Based on this determination, it is that in the future the parties may decide that they can no longer sustain this war economically and be convinced to sit down at the table to end the war under the influence of international pressure. Firstly, a ceasefire decision to be made and then permanent peace negotiations may be possible under some conditions. Finding a middle way will be possible if both sides agree to step back to some extent from the rhetoric they have advocated so far. As a solution; - The establishment of an autonomous structure in which the rights of Russian-speaking and Russian passport-holding citizens living in these regions are defined by an arrangement that Ukraine will put into its constitution as a result of the referendum to be held in three disputed regions (Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, - Ukraine's long-term re-commitment of facilities related to some ports and naval bases that were given to Russia's use before the war, - The provision of certain guarantees for the elimination of national security concerns during the process for Ukraine to become a full member of NATO,
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