EFFECTS OF TURKEY ON RUSSIA'S POSSIBLE WAR IN UKRAINE

Recently, the eyes and ears of the whole world have been turned to the news coming from the Russian-Ukrainian border.

Russia's military buildup on the Ukrainian border has decimated tensions between Western countries and Russia.

In their statements this week, the United States and its European allies warned Russia in very harsh terms against a new invasion attempt, noting that this would have very grave consequences for Moscow. The United States and the European Union have said they could impose “massive” economic and financial sanctions.

While Russia blames Ukraine for the tension, eyes have been turned to NATO member Turkey, which has close ties with both Moscow and Kiev. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, saying that they do not want war in the region, suggested mediating between the parties to contribute to decimating tensions.

THE STATEMENT CAME FROM RUSSIA

Although the proposal was not warmly received by the Kremlin, it is also noteworthy that Russia did not completely close the door to Turkey's proposals.

Yesterday, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, who met with his US counterpart Antony Blinken in Geneva, said that Russia has no plans to dec Ukraine. So why is there a military mass on the Ukrainian border if Russia has no plans to attack it? Is the war close, as it is said in the region? What would be the effects of this war on Turkey? Will Russia, which has already been sanctioned by the United States, face ‘major’ economic and financial sanctions as mentioned? How will the countries of the region and Turkey be affected if they encounter it?

Ankara Institute of Russian Studies (RUSEN) President and Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University faculty Member Prof. Dr. Salih Yilmaz and Omeljan Kaipov, Director of the Institute of Russian Studies in Ankara (RUSEN) Ukraine, answered the questions of the SPOKESMAN.

Prof. Dr. According to Salih Yilmaz, the state of rivalry and crisis that has intensified in the Black Sea and Ukraine, especially in the United States-Russia, has now turned on the Russian-NATO rivalry or compromise.

Dec Why did the crisis between Russia and Ukraine break out at once? What do the soldiers that Russia is piling on the border mean? Is there really a possibility of a war in the region?

Prof. Dr. Salih Yilmaz: "Russia managed to move the crisis area away from its borders in a sense by moving the competition to Syria after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. But the United States, together with the Biden administration, aims to show Russia as a threat in the global world by moving the crisis area back to the borders of Russia. Although the United States bases Russia's military buildup within its borders on the possibility of a war, according to Russia, this situation is evaluated a little differently. Russia is building a military stack not for offensive purposes, but for defensive purposes.

According to Russia, the Ukrainian military will carry out an attack in the Crimea or Donbas, Yilmaz said, “Belarus suspects that there will be a Western-backed coup attempt in a war that will begin with an attack by Ukraine." said.

The US and the EU are talking about ‘very large’ economic and trade sanctions against Russia at every turn. How does this affect Russia and its influence in the region?

Prof. Dr. Salih Yilmaz: Russia's strategy of negotiating the crisis that began over Ukraine with NATO and the United States has been successful. In order to reduce the perception of a threat, Russia has raised the weapons that NATO has placed at its military bases in Romania and Bulgaria, in a way distracting the United States from negotiating the Ukraine issue. In a situation that seems to be the success of Russian diplomacy, the fact that the only weapon of the United States is economic sanctions is a situation that can be solved from the point of view of Russia.

Oil and gas owned by Russia necessarily finds customers on the world sunday. In this sense, China is becoming the lifeline of Russia as an alternative customer. It may not be possible for the United States to negatively affect Russia economically without convincing China.

Omeljan Kaipov, Director of the Institute of Russian Studies in Ankara (RUSEN) Ukraine: The main goal of the United States is to weaken Russia in the Mediterranean by imprisoning it in the Black Sea. The Ukrainian crisis is just a pretext for demonstration. Otherwise, without a revolution in Ukraine in 2014, Ukraine's EU and NATO demands would have been met positively. It can be said that both the US and EU countries have let Ukraine down. Russia is also being more demanding because it sees this.

The DEC wants to make the problem global by creating a crisis between NATO-Russia, and not actually Russia and itself. If such a crisis arises, it will force Turkey to fulfill its obligations as a NATO country. He'll have to make a scene. The US and EU countries made big mistakes in the 2014 annexation of Crimea. The sanctions imposed on Russia

they thought they could convince him. Perhaps it could have been effective if the United States had made the sanctions it is currently announcing in 2014.

‘THE U.S. IS PUTTING UKRAINE FORWARD IN A WAR IT CAN'T AFFORD’

Although Crimea and Donbas, which normally belong to Ukraine, are currently controlled by Russia, both the United States and the EU are acting as if these lands belong to Russia and have accepted the situation. Russia has put itself in a position to accept this situation in a 7-year process. Ukraine is a new state, and its army has no achievements yet. He even handed over the Crimea to Russia without a fight. And now the Ukrainian army is being asked to fight against Russia. While the United States cannot even afford to fight a nuclear power like Russia, it should not be because it thinks of Ukraine that it should drive the Ukrainian army to the front line.

– So from the point of view of Turkey... how will a possible war affect us? Considering our recent relations with Russia, how will possible sanctions affect Turkey?

Prof. Dr. Salih Yilmaz: From the point of view of Turkey, a possible war may involve significant losses. Firstly, if there is a war situation in the Black Sea, it will be difficult for tourists to come from both Russia and Ukraine this summer. Another problem is that Turkey meets most of its wheat needs from Russia and Ukraine. As the war situation will also affect these imports, there may be rapid increases in food products.

‘THERE MAY BE A NATURAL GAS CRISIS IN TURKEY’

In case of war, there may be a possibility that natural gas pipelines such as Turkstream and Blue Stream will also be attacked in the Black Sea, which seem to be an important source of income for Russia, which in such a case could lead to a natural gas crisis in Turkey. By inviting the president of both Ukraine and Russia to Turkey, Turkey is actually signaling that it will remain neutral in this crisis with an offer to mediate.

'PROJECTS IN TURKEY ARE NEGATIVELY AFFECTED’

Turkey does not recognize and does not apply the sanctions imposed by the United States and EU countries on Russia. In this sense, we can say that there is an understanding and dec between the two countries. Although Turkey does not apply Russian sanctions, the sanctions that will be applied, especially in the banking system, will negatively affect Russian projects in Turkey. The construction of the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant may be delayed.

Since there will be no dollar circulation, Russia may have to decelerate its projects. Again, since the Black Sea will become a battlefield, it will become difficult to use commercial roads, which will be reflected in prices.

A crisis situation between Turkey and Russia would not be out of dec question. Because the current crisis affects Turkey

it's not my direct business. But one of the countries that will be most economically affected by the crisis will be Turkey. Turkey's strained relations with the United States may also be an obstacle to compensating for these economic losses.

– President Erdogan said that they do not want war in the region and offered to mediate between the parties. dec. What do you think Turkey's attitude should be at this point? How should a diploma be conducted?

Prof. Dr. Salih Yilmaz: What Turkey should do here is not to leave the initiative to the United States, but to start negotiations directly through diplomatic channels. A compromise is possible between the dec of Ukraine and the demands of Russia. What is not possible here are Russia's demands from NATO and the United States' demands from Russia. However, both the United States and Russia see that the benefits of competition are more than reconciled with each other.

The United States will break Russia's ties with the EU countries with this crisis, while Germany and France will weigh in the EU and cut off their good relations with Russia. Because if it cannot prevent this now, a new alliance between Russia, Germany and France may be formed in the future in a possible EU decoupling if it cannot prevent it.

Russia, on the other hand, is rebelling against the unipolar world order by creating a crisis area with the United States. In this way, he gathers all the countries that have problems with the United States around him. He gets the opportunity to play a leading role in the transition to a bipolar world order.

- What about other countries in Europe? Balances within the EU? How is it affected by a possible war and strife?

Omeljan Kaipov: The United States has managed to gain the support of Poland and the Baltic states, which are weak in the EU over the Ukraine crisis, especially to put pressure on Germany. The threat of Russia that the United States expects has not had the expected effect on Sweden and Finland. In a way, these two countries have shown that they do not want a crisis with Russia by pretending to be neutral. In this sense, we can also expect that an incident and a crisis will arise between Sweden and Finland in the near future. The United States will need a crisis to convince these countries.

Active policy was carried out against countries such as Germany, Hungary, Austria, which were considered supporters of Russia within the EU. In Austria, the pro-Russian prime minister was suspended by a bribery operation. There has been a change in Germany with the election. Hungary, on the other hand, is hesitant to act alone. The current situation is also an operation to the EU through Ukraine.